Nebius 凭借 Microsoft/Meta 合计 $44.4B TCV 长协、>3.5GW 已签约电力及 NVIDIA 战略背书,正在从 Yandex 重组资产蜕变为全栈 AI 云基建纯玩稀缺标的,FY26 收入指引 $3.0–3.4B 与 ARR $7–9B 提供短期可见性。关键上行变量为 Meta $15B 可选容量转化率(基准 60%、乐观 100%)与 Adj. EBITDA margin 能否稳态突破 45%;关键下行变量为 $20–25B CapEx 融资可持续性与客户集中度违约风险(任一大客户违约即触发 -40%+ 重估)。定价以中性情景 FY27E Revenue $6.0B × 16x EV/Sales 为锚,18 个月目标价 $290,概率加权 $308,较现价 $219.93 隐含 ~40% 上行。
| 指标 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 集团总收入 ($M) | 399.0 | 228.0 | 146.0 | 105.1 | 50.9 |
| Nebius AI 收入 ($M) | 389.7 | n/a | ~131.4* | ~95.0* | 41.4 |
| Nebius AI 占比 (%) | 97.7% | n/a | ~90% | ~90% | 81.3% |
| Nebius AI YoY (%) | +841% | +830% | +400% | >900% | n/a |
| Nebius AI Adj. EBITDA Margin | 45% | 24% | 19% | Positive | Negative |
注: Q3/Q2 2025 Nebius AI 收入为基于管理层披露占比 (~90%) 的估算值，非精确审计数 (Q3/Q2 2025 call).
| 指标 | TTM (截至 Q1 2026) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 815.7 | 482.0* | 106.0* | 22.0* |
| YoY Growth (%) | n/a | +355%* | +382%* | n/a |
| Gross Margin (%) | 47.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Operating Margin (%) | -68.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Net Income ($M) | 835.0* | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| EPS (Diluted) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| OCF ($M) | 3,012.0* | 1,234.5 | -500.0 | 458.0* |
| CapEx ($M) | n/a | 4,066.0 | n/a | n/a |
注: FY2024/FY2023 收入及 OCF 为基于季度历史数据的加总估算；FY2025 收入基于 Q3 指引中点及 Q4 实际值推算。TTM Net Income 包含大额非现金投资收益。(2-Year Quarterly Financial History; 20-F 2026-04-30)
| 指标 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 399.0 | 228.0 | 146.0 | 105.1 | 50.9 | 38.0 |
| YoY Growth (%) | +684% | +547% | +355% | +625% | n/a | n/a |
| QoQ Growth (%) | +75% | +56% | +39% | +106% | +34% | n/a |
| Gross Margin (%) | 73.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Operating Margin (%) | -32.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Net Income ($M) | 621.2 | -250.0 | -120.0 | 584.0 | -114.0 | -133.0 |
| EPS (Diluted) | 2.01 | -0.99 | -0.47 | 2.45 | -0.48 | -0.58 |
| OCF ($M) | 2,258.0 | 834.0 | -80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -75.0 |
注: Q1 2026 Gross Margin 根据 Revenue $399M - COGS $103.8M 计算得出；Operating Margin 根据 Loss from Ops -$128M / Rev $399M 计算。(6-K 2026-05-20; 2-Year Quarterly Financial History)
| 指标 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius AI Rev ($M) | 389.7 | n/a | ~131.4 | ~95.0 |
| Nebius AI YoY (%) | +841% | +830% | +400% | >900% |
| Nebius AI Adj. EBITDA Margin | 45% | 24% | 19% | Positive |
| Group Adj. EBITDA Margin | 32% | 7% | n/a | n/a |
| ARR ($B) | 1.90 | 1.25 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
注: Q3/Q2 Nebius AI 收入为估算值；ARR 数据来自各季度 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks。
“Everything we build with is sold. That is what is driving us to build more and to raise our 2026 CapEx guidance to between $20 billion and $25 billion.” — CEO Arkady Volozh (Q1 2026 call)
“We are building for 2027 demand where we have customer commitments already in place. And so we have near-term visibility into future revenue associated with this investment.” — CFO Dado Alonso (Q1 2026 call)
“This contract alone [Meta] can unlock billions of dollars of capital for our own multi-tenant cloud at attractive rates that may not otherwise be available to us.” — CEO Arkady Volozh (Q1 2026 call)
“Our full stack platform allows us to capture and service a large and diverse range of hundreds of customers, not just several big bare metal offtakers.” — CEO Arkady Volozh (Q1 2026 call)
“Capacity today is the main bottleneck to revenue growth, and we are now working to remove this bottleneck.” — CEO Arkady Volozh (Q3 2025 call)
“We anticipate a nonlinear quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin progression during 2026... leading us to be confident in our adjusted EBITDA margin returning to Q1 levels in Q3 before moving even higher in Q4.” — CFO Dado Alonso (Q1 2026 call)
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 3.4 | 7.5 | 13.5 |
| YoY (%) | +605% | +121% | +80% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 42% | 48% | 52% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | 1.43 | 3.60 | 7.02 |
| ARR 年末 ($B) | 9.0 | 16.0 | 25.0 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$500–$620,中值 $560
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 3.2 | 6.0 | 9.5 |
| YoY (%) | +564% | +88% | +58% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 40% | 44% | 47% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | 1.28 | 2.64 | 4.47 |
| ARR 年末 ($B) | 8.0 | 12.5 | 18.0 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$275–$305,中值 $290
(a) 叙事
(b) 财务轨迹表
| 指标 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 2.8 | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| YoY (%) | +481% | +50% | +38% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 32% | 30% | 32% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | 0.90 | 1.26 | 1.86 |
| ARR 年末 ($B) | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 |
(c) 估值方法
(d) 综合目标价区间:$75–$105,中值 $90
| 指标 | 当前值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| TTM P/E | 67.92x | Header (含$780M重估收益) |
| Forward P/E | N/A | Valuation Inputs (缺失) |
| EV/EBITDA | -1003.91x | Header (GAAP EBITDA为负) |
| P/S (TTM) | 60.12x | Header (Rev $815.7M) |
| 3y/5y Hist Avg | N/A | Valuation Inputs (缺失) |
| KPI | 频率 | 警戒值 | 为何重要 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | Q | <35% | Bear 情景阈值；验证绿地 TCO 优势与规模效应 |
| Meta 可选容量转化率 | Q | <40% | Bull/Base 分水岭；直接影响 FY27 收入天花板 |
| GPU 集群利用率 | M | <70% | 需求侧核心信号；低于此值预示产能过剩风险 |
| CapEx 执行率 | Q | <80% YoY | $20-25B 投入节奏；滞后则推迟算力上线与变现 |
| 经营性现金流(OCF) | Q | 转负 | 预付款模式可持续性检验；断崖下滑触发流动性危机 |
| 可转债转股/稀释 | E | >5% 股本扩张 | 每股价值侵蚀；关注股价触及转股价后的套利行为 |
| Microsoft 合同确认收入 | Q | <$800M/Q | Base 情景$3.5B 年化贡献的季度拆解验证 |
| 电力签约增量 | Q | <500MW | 长期扩容瓶颈；4GW 存量消耗速度决定 2028+ 增长 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 关注点 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 (TBD) | Q2 2026 Earnings | Meta 转化进展、CapEx 执行率、OCF 质量 |
| 2026-H2 | NVIDIA GTC/发布会 | Blackwell/B300 供货优先级、软件栈集成 |
| 2026-Q3 | 可转债条款更新 | 转股价格调整、潜在稀释测算窗口 |
| 2026-11 (TBD) | Q3 2026 Earnings | FY26 指引达成度、2027 订单能见度 |
| 2027-01 | CES / 行业峰会 | AI Agent/推理需求趋势、竞品产能释放 |
| 2027-Q1 | FY2026 Audit Report | 收入确认合规性、预付款负债审计意见 |
| TBD | 数据中心投产仪式 | 芬兰/法国/美国新站点实际点亮时间 |
| TBD | 主权基金/政府订单公告 | 客户多元化里程碑、地缘风险对冲 |
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标价 | 18m IRR | 3y IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 悲观 | 0.25 | $90 | -39% | -25% |
| 中性 | 0.50 | $290 | 21% | 16% |
| 乐观 | 0.25 | $560 | 95% | 36% |
| 加权 | 1.00 | $308 | 25% | 16% |
Thesis:Nebius 凭借 Microsoft/Meta 合计 $44.4B TCV 长协、>3.5GW 已签约电力及 NVIDIA 战略背书,正在从 Yandex 重组资产蜕变为全栈 AI 云基建纯玩稀缺标的,FY26 收入指引 $3.0–3.4B 与 ARR $7–9B 提供短期可见性。关键上行变量为 Meta $15B 可选容量转化率(基准 60%、乐观 100%)与 Adj. EBITDA margin 能否稳态突破 45%;关键下行变量为 $20–25B CapEx 融资可持续性与客户集中度违约风险(任一大客户违约即触发 -40%+ 重估)。定价以中性情景 FY27E Revenue $6.0B × 16x EV/Sales 为锚,18 个月目标价 $290,概率加权 $308,较现价 $219.93 隐含 ~40% 上行。
Confidence: medium(历史/同业倍数缺失、TTM 净利润含 $780M 非现金收益、CapEx 转化效率尚待 2026 H2 验证)