COHU earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• Q1 2026 revenue of $125.1M, above midpoint of guidance; recurring revenue (consumables) was 60% of total (CFO).
• Q1 gross margin of 46.5%, above guidance due to favorable mix from higher recurring revenue (CFO).
• Q1 operating expenses of $55M, above guidance due to accelerated R&D and field support for HPC opportunities (CFO).
• Q1 cash from operations of $10M; cash and investments rose ~$5M to $489M (CFO).
• Q1 CapEx of ~$2M; 2026 target CapEx about 2% of revenue (CFO).
• Q1 orders up 57% year-over-year; test handler orders up 54% YoY; inspection & metrology orders up 64% YoY; semiconductor test orders up 163% YoY (CEO).
• Q1 semiconductor test utilization increased sequentially to 78% (CEO).
• No customer accounted for more than 10% of Q1 sales (CFO).
• HPC segment pipeline now ~$750M: ~$650M in test handlers + ~$100M from HBM inspection; 12 customers (5 in qualification, 7 in early engagement) (CEO).
• Software subscription example: a $20M system order included $330K/year software subscription, potentially yielding ~$5M in recurring revenue over system lifetime (CEO).
• Eclipse customer wins: two major orders in Q1 → one U.S. fabless AI customer (estimated $100M incremental revenue opportunity over 3 years) and another U.S. fabless customer for data center, mobile & automotive (CEO).
• Inspection business: HBM revenue forecast to grow 80% YoY to ~$20M (Neon HBM platform); total inspection revenue estimated at ~$70M in 2026 (CEO).
• Interface Solutions Group: new higher-current contactors for AI power; multi-unit order for silicon photonics solution (CEO).

Official Guidance

• Q2 2026: Revenue ~$144M ±$7M (+15% sequential, +34% YoY); gross margin ~44%; operating expenses ~$53M; net interest income ~$2M; tax provision ~$5.3M; diluted shares ~52.6M (CFO).
• Full-year 2026: Revenue growth of 20% to 25% over 2025; gross margin in mid-40% range (CFO); high-performance computing revenue outlook raised to ~$80M–$100M (CEO).

Management Quotes

• "We started the year with strong momentum across multiple product lines with orders up 57% year-over-year, reflecting both improved semiconductor market conditions and the increasing relevance of our technology portfolio across AI and high-performance compute applications." (CEO)

• "If a chip is tested at the wrong temperature, its performance metrics may be skewed, leading to lower yields or worse latent field failures." (CEO)

• "With a $750 million computing segment opportunity in front of us and improving utilization across our core markets, we are accelerating R&D investments to capture new customers, and we are expanding production capacity to move confidently through the remainder of this year and into 2027." (CEO)

• "Recurring revenue driven primarily by consumables and typically more stable than systems revenue represented 60% of total revenue." (CFO)

• "We expect Q2 revenue to increase 15% sequentially and 34% year-over-year to approximately $144 million, plus or minus $7 million." (CFO)

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (1–5 of 8)

Q1 — Brian Chin

• Topic: Q2 15% QoQ 增长驱动拆分及HPC客户管道收入节奏
• Key points:
  • HPC 系统收入环比增加约 $10M，占 QoQ 增幅的近一半；2026 上半年 HPC 系统收入约 $30M。
  • Q1 毛利率拆分：经常性约 50%，系统约 40%；Q2 毛利率指引 46.5%，下半年因系统占比提升面临压力，全年预期落在 mid-40%。
  • 已认证的 $100M 管道为 3 个客户 2026 年全年计划支出，公司预计只能获得其中一部分；其余 5 个客户年度规模在 $10M–$40M 之间，资质认证预计 2026 年 Q3 初完成，是否在 2026 年确认收入取决于订单时间及收入确认规则。
• Mgmt stance: 中性偏乐观 — HPC 增长清晰，但毛利率因产品结构变化短期承压；管道客户何时转化为收入存在不确定性。

Q2 — David Duley

• Topic: AI 数据中心需求扩散对测试设备订单的影响
• Key points:
  • 客户 AI 业务增速 50%–100%，但近期需求从单一 GPU 大客户转向更广泛的 CPU、ASIC、加速器及网络处理器。
  • 端侧推理需求上升以及部署更多算力的共识是当前需求扩散的主要推动力。
• Mgmt stance: 乐观 — 需求基础扩大，客户类型多样化，有利于订单来源分散。

Q3 — Luis Müller

• Topic: $750M 目标市场的定义及硅光子学业务进展
• Key points:
  • $750M 定义为 SAM（可服务市场），基于 15 个已知客户及设备类别汇总，非 TAM；该 SAM 有望随客户 ramp 于 2026 年扩大。
  • 硅光子学目前为“滩头”业务：已向一个大客户销售多个接触器（单价约 $10,000），尚未包含在 $750M 中；未来可能配套提供 handler，但 2027 年收入规模未做预估。
• Mgmt stance: 谨慎乐观 — SAM 有明确客户基础，但硅光子学尚处早期，不预测具体收入。

Q4 — Craig Ellis

• Topic: HPC 系统收入提升的具体驱动、订单增长来源及管道转化时间线
• Key points:
  • 2026 年 HPC 系统收入预期增量约 $20M，因 Eclipse 在某客户处成功通过资质认证，扩大份额。
  • 订单环比增长 62%，计算领域订单同比 +211% 为主要驱动力；工业领域也有所回暖。订单发货集中在 Q3，部分延至 Q4。
  • 约 $200M 的资质认证机会预计 2026 年完成认证，收入主要落在 2027；剩余 $450–$500M 的 engagement 预计 2026 年底至 2027 年初进入认证阶段。
• Mgmt stance: 乐观 — 管道规模大、转化路径清晰；强调系统发货后约 12 个月开始产生经常性收入（备件、服务），热头寿命约 18 个月需更换。

Q5 — Robert Mertens

• Topic: 软件业务机会及工业/汽车/RF测试业务展望
• Key points:
  • 软件（PACE 系列）ARR 约 $1.2M，系统订阅附着率仅 1.3%；2026 年软件收入预计接近 $3M，同比增长 >200%。
  • 例：$20M 系统订单可附带 $330K 年订阅费，产品生命周期内累计 $5M 高毛利经常性收入。
  • Q2 收入

Q&A Batch (6-8 of 8)

Q6 — Christian Schwab

• Topic: M&A update and 2027 revenue growth outlook
• Key points:
  • M&A focus remains on recurring revenue and growth areas; valuations remain elevated due to tailwinds.
  • 2027 growth expected, supported by $150M–$200M qualification bucket and test utilization near 80%.
  • No specific 2027 growth rate penciled in yet; management will reserve another quarter or two before providing guidance.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral on M&A (disciplined, valuations high); bullish on 2027 growth (qualifications and utilization support).

Q7 — Denis Pyatchanin

• Topic: HPC revenue breakdown, 2026 revenue cadence, and inspection/metrology orders
• Key points:
  • HPC revenue guidance raised from $60M–$85M to $80M–$100M for 2026; most relates to Eclipse handler; Neon for HBM inspection at higher end of 15%–20% range.
  • 2026 total revenue expected up 20%–25%; Q3 revenue similar to Q2 (~$144M–$145M); Q4 down mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter due to seasonality.
  • Inspection/metrology orders up 64% year-over-year in Q1; business expected to hit ~$70M revenue in 2026, with HBM contributing ~$20M; driven by large orders from U.S. and Korean customers.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish on HPC and inspection/metrology growth (raised guidance, strong orders).

Q8 — Vedvati Shrotre

• Topic: Gross margin drivers, R&D spend, and qualification pipeline breakdown
• Key points:
  • Gross margin dip in Q2 (~200 bps decline) driven by higher initial costs for Eclipse supply chain and production (cost first, mix second); energy/freight costs add ~10 bps; memory IC costs add ~10 bps; lower costs expected in 2027.
  • Q2 OpEx forecast ~$53M (lower than Q1); low $50M range expected to persist through H2 2026 due to continued investment in HPC resources.
  • $150M–$200M qualification pipeline is all Eclipse thermal handler applications for processor devices.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral on near-term margins (cost headwinds through 2026); bullish on long-term investment (R&D to capture HPC opportunities).