QFIN earnings call summary

Prepared Highlights

• Q4 2025 total loan facilitation and origination volume decreased 21.8% YoY to RMB 70.3 billion (CEO); full-year 2025 volume increased 1.6% YoY to ~RMB 327.1 billion (CEO)
• Q4 2025 non-GAAP net income decreased 45.7% YoY to RMB 1.07 billion (CEO); full-year 2025 non-GAAP net income decreased 1% YoY to RMB 6.35 billion (CEO)
• Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPADS (fully diluted) decreased 39.8% YoY to RMB 8.23 (CEO); full-year 2025 non-GAAP EPADS increased 10.4% YoY to RMB 46.8 (CEO)
• Q4 2025 total net revenue was RMB 4.09 billion vs. RMB 5.21 billion in Q3 and RMB 4.48 billion a year ago (CFO)
• Q4 2025 revenue from credit-driven service (capital heavy) was RMB 3.43 billion vs. RMB 3.87 billion in Q3 and RMB 2.89 billion a year ago (CFO)
• Q4 2025 revenue from platform service (capital light) was RMB 660 million vs. RMB 1.34 billion in Q3 and RMB 1.59 billion a year ago (CFO)
• Q4 2025 C-M2 ratio (outstanding delinquency after 30-day collection) increased to 0.97% vs. 0.79% in Q3 (CEO, CFO); as of January 2026, C-M2 ratio declined 8.2% month-over-month from December (CEO)
• Q4 2025 90-day delinquency rate was 2.71% vs. 2.09% in Q3 (CFO); Day 1 delinquency rate was 6.1% vs. 5.5% in Q3 (CFO); 30-day collection rate was 84.1% vs. 85.7% in Q3 (CFO)
• Q4 2025 total new provisions for risk-bearing loans were ~RMB 1.92 billion vs. RMB 2.58 billion in Q3 (CFO); write-backs of previous provisions were ~RMB 274 million vs. RMB 785 million in Q3 (CFO)
• Q4 2025 leverage ratio (risk-bearing loan balance / shareholders’ equity) was 2.7x vs. 3x in Q3 (CFO)
• Q4 2025 cash from operations was ~RMB 3.15 billion vs. RMB 2.5 billion in Q3 (CFO); total cash and equivalents + short-term investments was RMB 10.72 billion vs. RMB 14.35 billion in Q3 (CFO)
• Full-year 2025 ABS issuance grew 40.8% YoY to RMB 21.4 billion; average issuance cost declined 72 bps YoY (CEO)
• Technology Solutions business loan volume up ~448% YoY; outstanding loan balance approaching RMB 11.7 billion by year-end (CEO)
• Shareholder returns in 2025: ~USD 200 million in dividends + USD 680 million via share repurchases (98% of 2024 GAAP net income) (CEO); cumulative repurchase of 40 million ADSs since start of 2024 (25.4% of outstanding shares at start of 2024) (CEO)
• Q4 2025 ADS repurchases: ~8.7 million ADSs for ~USD 168.8 million at avg. price $19.4/ADS (CFO); full-year 2025 repurchased ~21.1 million ADSs for ~USD 677 million at avg. price $32.1/ADS (14.8% of shares outstanding at start of 2025) (CFO)
• CB repurchases: as of March 17, 2026, repurchased ~USD 460 million aggregate principal for USD 399 million cash; ~USD 230 million aggregate principal remains outstanding (CFO)
• Dividend: Board approved USD 0.39 per Class A ordinary share / USD 0.78 per ADS for H2 2025, record date April 22, 2026 (CFO)

Official Guidance

• Q1 2026 non-GAAP net income: between RMB 900 million and RMB 950 million, representing a YoY decline between 51% and 53% (CFO)

Management Quotes

• "We concluded 2025 with resilient financial and operational results." (CEO)
• "Our C2M2 ratio, which measures the outstanding delinquency rate after 30 days of collection, increased to 0.97%, the highest recorded since COVID in 2020." (CEO)
• "Our risk strategies continue to deliver tangible results. FPD 30 for December vintages was close to our historical lows over the past 2 years." (CEO)
• "We are witnessing a regulatory-driven restructuring that will likely accelerate industry consolidation over the next 2 years." (CEO)
• "For the first quarter of 2026, the company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB 900 million and RMB 950 million, representing a year-on-year decline between 51% and 53%." (CFO)

Prepared Metrics

Q&A Batch (1-4 of 4)

Q1 — Richard Xu

• Topic: Loan pricing outlook, net take rate, and shareholder return balance
• Key points:
  • Q4 average pricing dropped 140 bps; further downward adjustment expected in 2026 as asset structure improves.
  • Q4 take rate was 3.5%; excluding one-time items, operational take rate slightly below 3%; target to maintain ~3% if regulatory environment stays stable.
  • 2025 cumulative dividend payout ~$200M, share buyback ~$680M; total payout ratio ~98% of 2024 GAAP net income; since early 2024, ~40M ADSs repurchased (25.4% of share count).
• Mgmt stance: Neutral on pricing (regulatory-driven downward trend); bullish on shareholder return (highest combined yield among Chinese ADRs, progressive DPS policy); cautious on buyback (paused due to macro/regulatory uncertainty, but open to restart when stable).

Q2 — Zuoli Xu

• Topic: Credit risk trends and business mix (capital-light vs. capital-heavy)
• Key points:
  • Q4 FPD30 for new loans dropped 18% QoQ; December cohort FPD30 near 2-year best; January FPD7 improved 10% from December (also 2-year best).
  • C-M2 ratio peaked in October, stable Nov/Dec; January C-M2 ratio dropped 8.2% MoM; expected February C-M2 ratio to return to July/August 2025 levels.
  • 2025 capital-light loan volume was 44% of total; 2026 directionally moving toward more capital-light for flexibility and risk diversification.
• Mgmt stance: Bullish on near-term risk improvement (clear results from underwriting/collection actions); cautious on macro/regulatory environment (no fixed mix target, dynamic adjustment).

Q3 — Xiaoxiong Ye

• Topic: ICE business decline and funding cost impact from 4x LPR cap
• Key points:
  • Q4 ICE referral service fee down 85% QoQ; ICE volume declined 41% QoQ, now ~20% of total loan volume; take rate proactively lowered to maintain partner sustainability.
  • ABS funding costs face uncertainty due to 4x LPR cap making investors cautious; on-balance sheet loan proportion expected steady if ABS issuance goes smoothly.
  • Funding supply from financial institutions tighter due to regulatory guidance; strategy to expand channels and keep cost competitive.
• Mgmt stance: Neutral on ICE (short-term sacrifice, but important platform strategy for long-tail compliance); cautious on funding cost (tight liquidity, uncertain ABS issuance).

Q4 — Yun-Yin Wang

• Topic: Credit risk stabilization and overseas expansion (including UK)
• Key points:
  • February C-M2 ratio returned to July/August 2025 levels; need more time to confirm sustainability; prudent risk strategy focused on loan quality over volume growth.
  • Overseas: entered mature market in 2025 with small-scale volume; one new market started operations in 2026; exploring Europe, Latin America, Southeast Asia.
  • Overseas teams expected to grow to ~200 people by end of 2026; confident in technology/risk model as best-in-class.
• Mgmt stance: Cautious on credit (needs more time to confirm improvement); bullish on overseas (firmly investing resources, aiming to become leading global credit tech company).