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10-Q2025-10-23· deepseek-v4-flash

GSHD · Goosehead Insurance, Inc

0001726978-25-000141

SEC filing

Summary

Q3 营收增16%至$90.4M,净利$12.7M,Adjusted EBITDA利润率33%,增长强劲但利润率略降。

Key takeaways

Full analysis

业绩速览

指标本期去年同期同比
Revenue$90.4M$78.0M+16%
Gross Profit$90.4M$78.0M+16%
Gross Margin100%100%
Operating Income$21.3M$16.4M+29%
Operating Margin23.5%21.1%+240 bps
Net Income$12.7M$12.6M+1%
Diluted EPS$0.29$0.290%
Adjusted EBITDA$29.7M$26.1M+14%
Operating Cash Flow$68.6M (9M)$59.0M (9M)+16%
Free Cash Flow$53.8M (9M)$49.8M (9M)+8%

业绩解读

Q3营收增长16%至$90.4M,主要由Franchise revenues(+19%至$55.8M)驱动,其中Renewal Royalty Fees增长20%至$45.7M,得益于Policies in Force增长13%和Client Retention 85%。Contingent Commissions同比大增$2.1M至$4.5M,贡献了Ancillary Revenue的增长,但该收入波动性大,管理层不依赖其做预算。

Operating Margin同比提升240 bps至23.5%,主要因营收增速(+16%)快于Operating Expenses增速(+12%),其中Employee compensation and benefits增长13%,General and administrative expenses增长13%。但Adjusted EBITDA Margin从34%降至33%,因员工薪酬(不含股权激励)增速快于营收。

盈利质量方面,Net Income仅微增$0.1M至$12.7M,主要受Interest Expense同比+190%至$6.0M拖累,因7月债务再融资后总借款增加。剔除一次性项(Q2资产减值$4.7M、Q3债务修改费用)后,run-rate盈利能力更强。Operating Cash Flow 9M达$68.6M,同比增长16%,与Net Income匹配良好。

分部表现

分部营收同比经营利润/EBITDA利润率驱动
Insurance Distribution$90.4M+16%$21.3M (Operating Income)23.5%Franchise revenues +19%,Contingent Commissions +$2.1M

资产负债与现金流

项目本期上期/变化
Cash & ST investments$51.6M$54.3M (Dec 2024)
Total Debt$293.0M$92.3M (Dec 2024)
Net Debt$241.4M$38.0M (Dec 2024)
Operating Cash Flow$68.6M (9M)$59.0M (9M 2024)
Capex$12.2M (9M)$9.0M (9M 2024)
Free Cash Flow$53.8M (9M)$49.8M (9M 2024)
FCF 转化率228% (9M)197% (9M 2024)

Net Debt/EBITDA(TTM)约3.2x,基于Adjusted EBITDA $74.4M (9M) 年化估算,符合债务契约5x上限。

资本配置 / 指引 / 关注点

资本配置:

  • Q3回购685千股,耗资$58.7M,剩余授权约$40.8M(至2026年5月1日)。
  • 1月支付特别股息$5.91/股,总额$146M,同时GF分配$175M。
  • 7月债务再融资,Term B-1利率降至SOFR+3.00%,但总借款增至$299.3M。

前瞻指引: 未提供具体财务指引。

一次性异常项:

  • Q2确认资产减值$4.7M(property and equipment $1.6M + right-of-use asset $3.1M),因退出/转租三个办公租赁。
  • Q3债务再融资产生debt modification expense,计入Other income (expense)。

主要风险:

  • Carrier capacity限制(尤其Texas)可能减缓New Business Revenue增长。
  • 保费上涨导致保费留存率从98%降至93%,可能影响Renewal Revenue。
  • Contingent Commissions波动性大,受自然灾害和Carrier承保盈利影响。
  • NPS从90降至81,需关注客户满意度。