0001868275-26-000104
SEC filingCalpine并购并表推动营收增23%,但套保亏损与核电停堆致净利降38%,调整后盈利反增54%。
| 指标 | 本期 | 去年同期 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7,504M | $6,101M | +23.0% |
| Operating Income | $580M | $951M | -39.0% |
| Net Income | $513M | $839M | -38.9% |
| Diluted EPS | $1.42 | $2.67 | -46.8% |
| Adjusted Operating Earnings | $920M | $599M | +53.6% |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.55 | $1.91 | +33.5% |
营收同比+$1,403M(+23.0%),增长桥几乎全部来自Calpine并表(+$2,147M);内生分部合计+$2,095M但被Other -$286M与未实现套保由去年+$86M转为-$320M(-$406M)大幅侵蚀。Mid-Atlantic零售合约价提升+$160M、Midwest零售+$110M与净容量+$65M为有机顺风;Other Power Regions因新英格兰负荷下降-$214M。
利润端:Operating Income $580M(-39.0%),主因Purchased power and fuel +$891M(+28.4%,含Calpine $1,119M与未实现套保-$201M)、O&M +$636M(含并购整合$87M、停堆成本$68M)、D&A +$189M(Calpine资产)。净利$513M(-38.9%),部分被Other, net中退役相关活动+$598M(Q1核电ARO更新)及权益投资收益改善抵消;有效税率升至44.2%(去年34.6%),因NDT基金高税率收益占比上升。
盈利质量:GAAP与调整后口径背离显著——调整后运营盈利$920M(+53.6%),剔除未实现套保-$340M(税后)、退役相关+$221M、收购合约摊销$149M、并购整合$84M等一次性/非现金项,反映核心容量与零售业务实质改善。
| 分部 | 营收 | 同比 | 驱动 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Atlantic | $1,555M | +7.4% | 零售合约价提升+$160M,套保-$90M |
| Midwest | $1,568M | +2.9% | 零售+$110M、净容量+$65M,ZEC -$135M |
| New York | $564M | +5.4% | 无单项重大驱动 |
| ERCOT | $446M | -3.9% | 无单项重大驱动 |
| Other Power Regions | $964M | -18.2% | 新英格兰负荷量下降 |
| Calpine | $2,147M | 新增 | 2026年1月并表 |
运营侧:核电容量因子93.0%(去年94.8%),换料停堆86天(去年41天);PJM容量价$289.67/MW-day(+130.4%),2028/29 BRA全部机组出清于$325/MW-day价格上限,为后续容量收入提供支撑。
| 项目 | 本期末 | 上期末 | 变化 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | $697M | $3,641M | -$2,944M |
| Marketable securities | — | — | — |
| Total Debt(Short-term borrowings + Long-term debt due within one year + Long-term debt) | $24,700M | $8,992M | +$15,708M |
| Net Debt | $24,003M | $5,351M | +$18,652M |
| Inventory | $3,368M | $1,736M | +$1,632M |
| RPO / Deferred revenue | $11,855M(剩余履约义务) | — | — |
| Shareholders' Equity | $31,977M | $14,517M | +$17,460M |
Total Debt 由 Short-term borrowings $5,226M、Long-term debt due within one year $363M 与 Long-term debt $19,111M 构成;Net Debt = Total Debt − Cash & equivalents。EBITDA 未在 Notes 中披露,故不计算 Net Debt/EBITDA。资产负债表扩张主要来自 Calpine 收购:商誉由 $420M 增至 $11,527M,PP&E 净额由 $22,474M 增至 $41,228M,持有待售资产 $5,743M。
| 项目 | 金额/数据 |
|---|---|
| 股份回购金额(上半年) | $1,971M |
| 回购股数 | 7.1M 股 |
| 剩余回购授权 | — |
| 新授权 | — |
| 分红总额(上半年) | $309M |
| 每股季度股息 | $0.4265(上年 $0.3878) |
| 长期债务发行 | $5,001M |
| 长期债务偿还 | $5,352M |
| 短期借款净变动 | +$2,586M |
| 资本开支(上半年) | $2,521M |
| 收购 Calpine 现金对价(净现金) | $2,537M |
Calpine 交易对价合计 $21,835M:股票对价 $17,603M(约 50 百万股,$354.58/股)、现金 $4,342M,另承担债务 $12,551M。为满足 DOJ 剥离要求,已签约向 LS Power 出售 PJM 五处资产(约 4.4 GW,对价 $5.0B)及 ERCOT 的 Brazos Valley Energy Center(606 MW,$860M)。
| 分部 | Q2 收入 | Q2 RNF | 上半年收入 | 上半年 RNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Atlantic | $1,555M | $988M | $3,402M | $1,800M |
| Midwest | $1,568M | $979M | $3,300M | $1,831M |
| New York | $564M | $390M | $1,133M | $798M |
| ERCOT | $446M | $284M | $816M | $493M |
| Other Power Regions | $964M | $287M | $2,450M | $554M |
| Calpine | $2,147M | $1,028M | $4,541M | $2,153M |
| 报告分部合计 | $7,244M | $3,956M | $15,642M | $7,629M |
Notes 未按分部披露 operating income 与利润率,故仅列 RNF。Calpine 并表后收入 $1,907M(Q2)/$5,043M(上半年),但 Notes 明确因整合与融资合并,无法确定其并表后盈利。
| 项目 | 金额 |
|---|---|
| 剩余履约义务合计 | $11,855M |
| 其中 2026 年 | $1,051M |
| 2027 年 | $1,797M |
| 2028 年 | $1,541M |
| 2029 年 | $1,420M |
| 2030 年 | $891M |
| 2031 年及以后 | $5,155M |
其他要点:核退役 ARO 由 $12,908M 降至 $11,942M(假设退役日期调整净减 $1,277M,带动 O&M 减少 $285M);NDT 基金 $20,583M;Regulatory Agreement Units 应付款 $5,914M;Calpine 应收账款出售计划额度 $500M,已使用 $343M。
| 项目 | 本期 | 去年同期 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1,553M | $1,584M |
| Capex | $2,521M | $1,573M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$968M | $11M |
| FCF 转化率 (FCF/Net Income) | -45.9% | 1.1% |
| Share Repurchases | $1,971M | $400M |
| Dividends Paid | $309M | $244M |
现金流质量点评:CFO 与净利润出现明显背离——净利润由9.62亿美元升至21.11亿美元,CFO 却微降至15.53亿美元,主因应付及应计费用大幅流出12.77亿美元、其他资产负债项目净流出8.13亿美元,营运资本拖累显著。资本开支同比大增60%至25.21亿美元,叠加Calpine收购净现金支出25.37亿美元,使自由现金流转为-9.68亿美元,远不足以覆盖19.71亿美元回购与3.09亿美元分红,资本返还高度依赖新增债务融资,现金及受限现金半年内减少26.71亿美元,后续流动性管理值得关注。