Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
$61.68-0.64%
报价 2026-11-13
市值
$33.57B
EV
$38.91B
PE (TTM)
46.5x
预期 PE (FY2027)
17.1x
52 周区间距高点 -40.1%
$49.02$102.92
筛选结果
pipeline · 2026-11-13Keep✓ 高增长✗ Cheap✗ GARP
Growth Pool: next 1Y revenue growth > 30%
爆发潜力
2026-11-13未命中✗ 收入线✗ EPS 线
| 财年 | 收入倍数 | EPS | PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY+22028-03 | 1.3x | 2.74 → 4.41（1.6x） | 14.0 |
| FY+32029-03 | 1.5x | 2.74 → 5.16（1.9x） | 12.0 |
毛利率 63% · TTM 收入 $5603M · 基数 EPS 2.74（调整后）
电话会信号
辅助标签Q2 20272026-11-05
扩产需求加速AI 词频高积压订单词频高下调/撤回指引供不应求
指引 下调
信心 4
分析师 3
“December quarter guidance is about 5%-7% above normal seasonality, and March backlog is much better than December's was at the same point.”
原文引用（4）
- 扩产：we are qualifying a different OSAT in a different country, and some of that is scheduled to be in production in the middle of next quarter
- 需求加速：Our bookings were very strong in the September quarter, and our book-to-bill ratio remained well above one.
- 下调/撤回指引：we're guiding the December quarter to be a tad lower than we would have thought about a quarter ago
- 供不应求：Demand is stronger than the capacity available.
蓝色标签在暴涨研究中略有区分度；悬停查看口径。
研究结论
L2 2026-11-12 · L3 2026-11-12全文 ↓Bull
$91.41
+47.1% · PE (24x)
Base
$58.90
-5.2% · PE (20x)
Bear
$30.37
-51.1% · PE (16x)
Bull
Base
Bear
现价 $61.68
### 5.1 概率加权结果
基本面判断
›最强证据：营收连续四季环比加速、现金转化1.47倍、Capex 极低、净杠杆一年内从4.69降至2.36，修复有真实现金流支撑 (10-Q 2026-11-05；
Q2 2027 call)。
›最大反证/不确定性：Q2 毛利率含约$160M 量级的一次性利好（库存转回+授权+产能费用），12月指引已主动下调；
需求中补库与提前拉单成分无法从现有数据分离；供应商涨价传导未定。
›研究置信度：中。
财务与指引证据充分，但份额、客户留存、应收账龄等经营明细缺失，马来西亚税务等尾部项未量化。
›是否进入 Layer 3 估值：有条件——收入路径、毛利率正常化区间、去杠杆节奏三项核心假设均可建模且有季度验证点；
需在 L3 中显式处理一次性项剔除后的稳态利润率，并对数据中心放量时点做情景区分。
接下来盯什么（5 项）
- 12月季度实际毛利率 vs 指引64%-65% → 若落在上沿且一次性项减少，上调"利润率正常化"假设；：若低于下沿，下调。
- 分销库存天数（当前25天）与 sell-through/sell-in 缺口 → 回升伴随订单增长=真实补库；：仅订单强而库存不动=提前拉单，下调收入路径假设。
- 3月季度营收环比与 backlog 表述 → 验证"好于季节性"是否兑现，调整 FY2027 收入路径与费用杠杆假设。
- 净债务/调整后EBITDA（当前2.36倍）与季度净债务绝对额 → 验证去杠杆节奏，影响股息可持续性与资本回报时点假设。
- 数据中心季度收入与 Gen6 设计中标转收入进度（24个中标，2027年起）→ 调整数据中心收入与产品组合假设。
历史股价
加载中…
事件
0 条 · 随区间与图例筛选该区间内无事件。
同行对比
FMP 同行列表 · 2026-05-16| 公司 | 市值 | 今日 | 预期营收增速 | 毛利率 | PE | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | 池 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $33.57B | -0.6% | +36.8% | 65.9% | 46.5x | 19.0x | 23.2x | 高增长 |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $78.48B | -2.0% | +30.6% | 22.1% | 35.2x | 17.1x | – | 高增长 |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $64.1B | -3.7% | +17.6% | 40.1% | 25.0x | 12.9x | 16.0x | GARP |
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $50.7B | -2.1% | +14.7% | 65.9% | 45.9x | 33.3x | 38.8x | |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $41.76B | +0.6% | +23.2% | 37.3% | 79.9x | 17.7x | 68.8x | GARP |
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $38.96B | -5.4% | +69.7% | 59.1% | 30.3x | 23.0x | 40.5x | 高增长 |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $38.77B | -2.6% | +143.4% | 72.3% | 86.2x | 90.3x | 117.1x | 高增长 |
| ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | $35.29B | -0.5% | – | 48.1% | 14.0x | 7.3x | 10.9x | Cheap |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | $28.17B | -0.6% | +4.8% | 33.4% | 14.2x | 7.5x | 11.5x | Cheap |
| 同行中位数 | – | – | +23.2% | 44.1% | 32.7x | 17.4x | 38.8x |
研究全文
财务报表
| Metric | 2026-09-30 Q2 2027 | 2026-06-30 Q1 2027 | 2026-03-31 Q4 2026 | 2025-12-31 Q3 2026 | 2025-09-30 Q2 2026 | 2025-06-30 Q1 2026 | 2025-03-31 Q4 2025 | 2024-12-31 Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.62B | $1.48B | $1.31B | $1.19B | $1.14B | $1.08B | $970.5M | $1.03B |
| Gross Margin | 65.9% | 63.2% | 61% | 59.6% | 55.9% | 53.6% | 51.6% | 54.7% |
| Operating Margin | 28.6% | 22.7% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 3% | -10.3% | 3% |
| Net Income | $401.4M | $229.8M | $144.2M | $34.9M | $41.7M | $-18.6M | $-154.6M | $-53.6M |
| Diluted EPS | 0.68 | 0.37 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.08 | -0.09 | -0.29 | -0.1 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $419.2M | $511.5M | $257M | $341.4M | $88.1M | $275.6M | $205.9M | $271.5M |
研究材料
Filing 摘要